This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Propels Villa's Improbable Championship Bid
A mere two months in the past when the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery berated him over not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his performances were an indicator or a cause for the side's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. After the England international swept in his second to restore his side's advantage, the boss tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, now sit only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
That’s a rather hard query to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, even as the victories have accumulated.
As per statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a club which has put together a ten-match winning streak, they appear curiously susceptible – but right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their star man to bail them out with two crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened against United.
Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, Manchester United had more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the player he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine the young forward as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.